The Ideal Payroll For an NFL Roster

Cap space is a topic that has been argued about for years. The main argument is how NFL teams should spend their money. A quarterback, defense, offense, there’s an argument for everything. Cap space is defined as the amount of money that a professional team has available to spend on players’ salaries. Meaning that if they go over this desired cap space, they are banned from signing any more players in that current free agency period. The common occurrence of today’s NFL, is to just pour money into a quarterback that has promise, and just ride it out there. In the article, “Quarterback Spendings,” it is mentioned that “an average of 9.24 percent of cap space goes to the quarterback.” And that is just the average, not every team has a stud quarterback that they desire to pay. To formulate a Superbowl Champion team, there has to be an ideal payroll. 

In the article, “The Ideal Cap Hit for a Superbowl QB,” it is stated, “The average cap number for title-winning signal-callers in that time is $9.81 million. In terms of share of the cap spent on a quarterback, 7.47 percent is the sweet spot across the past two decades, with just seven Super Bowl champions using at least 10 percent of their cap on the man under center.” In other words, Superbowl winners have found to obtain a great quarterback without an onerous cost. “Ideal Cap Hit for a Superbowl QB,” also mentions, “that balance is further illustrated by the average quarterback salary rank for Super Bowl winners – 16th.” So the average quarterback salary rank for Superbowl champions is 16th out of 32 total teams in the league. 

Now, there has to be losers of the big game as well, the same article specifies that, “Super Bowl runners-up since 2001 have spent an average of 7.17 percent of their cap on the quarterback. The average quarterback salary rank for those teams is just one spot below that of victorious franchises, 17th.” Both the winners and losers of the Superbowl have the right idea. The ideal percentage of a team’s salary going to a quarterback should be around seven to eight percent. 

A quarterback isn’t a whole team however, no one can win by themselves. A team must have good pieces around them in order to succeed as well. Many may be familiar with the slogan, “defense wins championships.” Which ultimately is true. “Spotratic” writes, “In 2022 the NFL average salary the defense of an NFL roster was 40.64 percent.” The Los Angeles Rams, superbowl champion this year, even had two players in the top ten in highest paid players on defense, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. They account for 24.84 percent of the Rams’ entire cap space, “Sporadic” lists. 

Starting with the defensive line, Patrick Schilling in the article, “The Art of Positional Spending in the NFL,” mentions, “the entire defensive line ranks fourth lowest in the overall highest paid position group which I think would be a shock to most people. Only three teams in the last ten winners have had an offensive and defensive line that were both inside of the top ten in cap hits (Seattle, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh).” An elite defense line possesses the ability to throw off a quarterback, and stuff a run game. Schilling also touches on linebackers and the secondary. Starting with linebackers he states, “The linebacker position was overall the second highest paid position group on the entire team, one spot behind the wide receiving corps. Along with that, it also had the largest gap between what the last ten SB winners averaged in cap hit for their linebackers versus what the average was of the bottom ten teams from the last ten seasons paid in terms of their cap hits.” Having linebackers is essential. But it seems over the last 10 seasons, NFL teams either choose to pay the defensive line or the linebackers. Schilling also writes, “In the last four years or so, however, the number has really steadied. Just one champion of the last four has had a cap hit for their linebackers that were less than $20m (the Eagles at $14m).” The trend for the league seems to be favoring linebackers over the defensive line however. 

Moving on to the secondary of the defense consisting of cornerbacks and safeties. Having a star cornerback or safety could prove to be essential in a championship run. However, Schilling writes, “With an average cap hit of just sixteenth that puts it at third lowest of all positions ahead of just special teams and quarterbacks.”​ Meaning cornerbacks are the lowest paid skill position in the league. Schilling also mentions, besides this past year, “None of the last ten SB winners have had an individual cornerback with a cap hit of higher than $10m and the highest cap hit in the league has never been less than $10m.” Interestingly enough, being the one exception Jalen Ramsey of this year with the Rams, corner seems to be an undervalued position. Overall, a team’s cap space for defense should account for forty to forty five percent of the cap.

With the offensive side of the ball, a team should be prioritizing wide receivers and the offensive line. A team should never invest big money into a running back. Injuries are the main problem. Today’s running backs such as Saquon Barkley, Christain McCaffery, and Eezekiel Elliot were known stars for a short while before injuries caught up to them. Barkley has been out for two years already in his career, McCaffery has played 10 games in the past two seasons, and Elliot has been battling injuries since last year. SB Nation writes, “six of the top 10 rushers in 2022 made less than 5 million dollars per year.” Making running back a risky position to pay, even two rookies finished in the top ten in rushing. Running backs should account for two percent of the cap space. 

Wide receiver is a different story. Teams should be looking to spend money here. Patrick Schilling states, “Of the past ten Super Bowl champions, just one team had a WR payroll that was outside of the top fifteen in the league.” Elite wide receivers make things much easier for a quarterback to hit throws accurantley. Creating separation for a wide receiver is an elite tool that can be a huge beneficiary to a team in the long run. Schilling also writes, “In the last ten years, only three times has the last place team had a higher cap hit for their highest paid wide receiver than the Super Bowl Champion. Along with that, the averages for the cap hit rank between Super Bowl teams and bottom of the ladder teams are not even close. The overall average the past ten seasons is about twenty-eight spots. The average cap hit position for a SB winner was twenty-ninth versus the fifty-seventh place that the bottom team had.” Making receiver a virtually important position for a team to have. A core of an elite number one receiver, and a good two and three wide receiver is essential to a teams success. With this being said, receivers should account for almost 20 percent of teams salary cap space. 

Ending off in the trenches of the offensive line, another important position. They do not get the credit they deserve. They are fast for their weight and very athletic. That being said without a good offensive line, you can’t go very far. Schilling writes, “As for entire position groups, the offensive line is one of only two groups that have four of the past ten Super Bowl Champions in the top ten highest paid groups.” Smart teams pay the line. “Offensive linemen also ranked tied for third as the highest group of all the positions with the highest average cap hit at fourteenth.” An elite offensive line gives a team a run game, and makes them two dimensional on offense instead of one dimensional. With a passing league nowadays as well, teams that do pass a lot need to protect their quarterback to prevent injuries, and just him getting beat up the whole game. Offensive line should make up 15 percent of the team’s cap space. 

Every team wants to be a Superbowl Champion. But that obviously can’t happen. The top tier of the league follows these protocols. Trying their best to emulate their perfect cap space. I have found it to be 7 percent to the quarterback, 40 to 45 percent to the defense, and 40 percent to the offense. These standards create superbowl champions.

References

“The Art of Positional Spending in the NFL.” Samford University, https://www.samford.edu/sports-analytics/fans/2019/The-Art-of-Positional-Spending-in-the-NFL. 

Dator, James. “Christian McCaffrey Is the Poster Child for Why NFL Teams Shouldn’t Pay Running Backs.” SBNation.com, SBNation.com, 1 Dec. 2021, https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2021/12/1/22811367/nfl-running-backs-contracts-injuries-christian-mccaffrey. 

“NFL Quarterback Spending – Cap.” Spotrac.com, https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/quarterback/. 

Nicholas McGee Rich Worsell, et al. “The Ideal Cap Hit for a Super Bowl QB Is Lower than You May Think.” The 33rd Team, 18 Mar. 2022, https://www.the33rdteam.com/the-ideal-cap-hit-for-a-super-bowl-qb-is-lower-than-you-think/.