The Ideal Cap Space For an NFL Roster

Many may think that NFL games are won on the field. Which obviously is true, but what if I said NFL games are truly won in the general manager’s office. Every team works with the same limitations and numbers when it comes to “cap space.” No team is at any disadvantage. But somehow there are teams that have 3 win seasons, and others who are crowned Super Bowl Champs at the end of the season. Some general managers stick to the idea of paying one player 50 million dollars a year out of 53 on a team, and decide to ride it out there. Smart general managers have cracked the code to an ideal payroll, and have found success for years to come. 

In the article, “The Ideal Cap Hit for a Superbowl QB,” it is stated, “The average cap number for title-winning signal-callers in that time is $9.81 million. In terms of share of the cap spent on a quarterback, 7.47 percent is the sweet spot across the past two decades, with just seven Super Bowl champions using at least 10 percent of their cap on the man under center.” In other words, Superbowl winners have found to obtain a great quarterback without an onerous cost. “Ideal Cap Hit for a Superbowl QB,” also mentions, “that balance is further illustrated by the average quarterback salary rank for Super Bowl winners – 16th.” So the average quarterback salary rank for Superbowl champions is 16th out of 32 total teams in the league. 

Now, there has to be losers of the big game as well. We may think of the losers of the Super Bowl to be unsuccessful and a failure, but in essence, they made it there too and came up just short. The losers have seen similar numbers to the winners however. The same article, “Ideal Cap Hit for a Super Bowl QB,” specifies that, “Super Bowl runners-up since 2001 have spent an average of 7.17 percent of their cap on the quarterback. The average quarterback salary rank for those teams is just one spot below that of victorious franchises, 17th.” Meaning, if you make it to the big game, you know what you’re doing as a general manager. No one wants to grind all the way to come up short, but it’s part of the game. With that being said, the ideal percentage of a team’s salary for a quarterback should be around 7 or 8 percent. 

A quarterback isn’t a whole team however, no one can win by themselves. A team must have good pieces around them in order to succeed as well. Many may be familiar with the slogan, “defense wins championships.” Which ultimately is true. “Spotratic” writes, “In 2022 the NFL average salary the defense of an NFL roster was 40.64 percent.” The Los Angeles Rams, superbowl champion this year, even had two players in the top ten in highest paid players on defense, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. They account for 24.84 percent of the Rams’ entire cap space, “Sporadic” lists. 

Starting with the defensive line, Patrick Schilling in the article, “The Art of Positional Spending in the NFL,” mentions, “the entire defensive line ranks fourth lowest in the overall highest paid position group. Only three teams in the last ten winners have had an offensive and defensive line that were both inside of the top ten in cap hits (Seattle, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh).” An elite defense line possesses the ability to throw off a quarterback, and stuff a run game. Schilling also touches on linebackers and the secondary. He mentions, “The linebacker position was overall the second highest paid position group on the entire team, one spot behind the wide receiving corps. Along with that, it also had the largest gap between what the last ten SB winners averaged in cap hit for their linebackers versus what the average was of the bottom ten teams from the last ten seasons paid in terms of their cap hits.” Having linebackers is essential. But it seems over the last 10 seasons, NFL teams either choose to pay the defensive line or the linebackers. Schilling also writes, “In the last four years or so, however, the number has really steadied. Just one champion of the last four has had a cap hit for their linebackers that were less than $20m (the Eagles at $14m).” The trend for the league seems to be favoring linebackers over the defensive line however.

When it comes to the secondary of the defense, having a star cornerback or safety could prove to be essential in a championship run. However, Schilling writes, “With an average cap hit of just sixteenth that puts it at third lowest of all positions ahead of just special teams and quarterbacks.”​ Meaning cornerbacks are the lowest paid skill position in the league. Schilling also mentions, besides this past year, “None of the last ten SB winners have had an individual cornerback with a cap hit of higher than $10m and the highest cap hit in the league has never been less than $10m.” Interestingly enough, being the one exception Jalen Ramsey of this year with the Rams, corner seems to be an undervalued position. Having a lockdown corner that can follow the other team’s best wide receiver could be huge in determining the outcome of a game. Having at least one very good cornerback should be essential to NFL teams. Overall, a team’s cap space for defense should account for forty to forty five percent of the cap. With options being up to the general manager. Stacking the defensive line, having an elite secondary, or an elite set of linebackers can be considered. Obviously, it would be very challenging to have all three, but having no glaring weak spots on your defense is widely important. 

With the offensive side of the ball, a team should be prioritizing wide receivers and the offensive line. A team should never invest big money into a running back. Injuries are the main reason why. Today’s NFL has seen running backs such as Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffery, and Ezekiel Elliot who were known as stars for a short while before injuries caught up to them. Barkley has been out for two years already in his career, McCaffery has played 10 games in the past two seasons, and Elliot has been battling injuries since last year. SB Nation writes, “six of the top 10 rushers in 2022 made less than 5 million dollars per year.” Making running backs a risky position to pay. Two rookies were even seen in the rushing top ten. So running backs can be “recycled” on cheap deals in free agency or later in the draft. Running back over should be a cheap position for a team, and should account for no more than two percent of their cap space. 

Wide receiver is a different story. This is where you should look to spend with no hesitation. Patrick Schilling states, “Of the past ten Super Bowl champions, just one team had a WR payroll that was outside of the top fifteen in the league.” Elite wide receivers make things much easier for a quarterback to hit throws accurately. Creating separation for a wide receiver is an elite tool that can be a huge beneficiary to a team in the long run. Schilling also writes, “In the last ten years, only three times has the last place team had a higher cap hit for their highest paid wide receiver than the Super Bowl Champion.” Along with that, “the averages for the cap hit rank between Super Bowl teams and bottom of the ladder teams are not even close. The overall average the past ten seasons is about twenty-eight spots. The average cap hit position for a Super Bowl winner was twenty-ninth versus the fifty-seventh place that the bottom team had.” Making receiver a virtually important position for a team to have. A team should definitely have a clear cut number recover, with a solid two and three around him. With this being said, receivers should account for almost 20 percent of teams salary cap space. 

Ending off in the trenches of the offensive line, another important position. They do not get the credit they deserve. They are fast for their weight and very athletic. That being said without a good offensive line, you can’t go very far. Schilling writes, “As for entire position groups, the offensive line is one of only two groups that have four of the past ten Super Bowl Champions in the top ten highest paid groups.” Smart teams pay the line. “Offensive linemen also ranked tied for third as the highest group of all the positions with the highest average cap hit at fourteenth.” An elite offensive line gives a team a run game, and makes them two dimensional on offense instead of one dimensional. With a passing league nowadays as well, teams that do pass a lot need to protect their quarterback to prevent injuries, instead of him just getting beat up the whole game. The big guys need their respect and if you don’t value them, you won’t win. Offensive line should make up for at least 15 percent of the team’s cap space. 

Every team wants to be a Superbowl Champion. But that obviously can’t happen. The top tier of the league follows these protocols. Trying their best to emulate their perfect cap space. I have found it to be 7 percent to the quarterback, 40 to 45 percent to the defense, and 40 percent to the offense. These standards create superbowl champions. General managers don’t share their secrets, but they aren’t hidden, they are for everyone to see. There is nothing wrong with being a copycat, and seeing what other teams do to be successful. There is one goal in the league, and that’s to win. 

References

“The Art of Positional Spending in the NFL.” Samford University, https://www.samford.edu/sports-analytics/fans/2019/The-Art-of-Positional-Spending-in-the-NFL. 

Dator, James. “Christian McCaffrey Is the Poster Child for Why NFL Teams Shouldn’t Pay Running Backs.” SBNation.com, SBNation.com, 1 Dec. 2021, https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2021/12/1/22811367/nfl-running-backs-contracts-injuries-christian-mccaffrey. 

“NFL Quarterback Spending – Cap.” Spotrac.com, https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/quarterback/. 

Nicholas McGee Rich Worsell, et al. “The Ideal Cap Hit for a Super Bowl QB Is Lower than You May Think.” The 33rd Team, 18 Mar. 2022, https://www.the33rdteam.com/the-ideal-cap-hit-for-a-super-bowl-qb-is-lower-than-you-think/.