A Counter-Intuitive Approach to Making Complex Decisions
In life we are often faced with difficult and pressing matters. Oddly enough the best course of action may be to just “sleep on it.” By sleeping on it, we remember key details and disregard useless thoughts and distractions. Experts believe we come to a better conclusions this way rather than mulling it over through all hours of the night.
Sometimes what initially seems logical could be quite the opposite. During World War II there was a strong interest in armoring up planes to resist German anti-air guns. Initially the idea was to armor the place where the planes had bullet holes. Abraham Wald explained how it would be smarter to armor the places that did not have holes because planes who were hit here did not make it back.
The Daily Shower Can Be A Killer
Most Americans fear the death they can’t control and ignore the one they can. Something like slipping and falling in the shower may only be a 1 in 1000 chance, but that is more likely to happen than encountering a crazed gunman or nuclear threat. As a society we need to focus on surviving everyday things we can prevent than worrying about things we can’t.
Counterintuitive World. You make a bigger claim than Wald did, unless he got it wrong too. He can’t say where planes were hit that didn’t make it back. But he CAN say that planes made it back that were hit everywhere they had holes in them. Those claims aren’t identical; one is justifiable.
There’s a comparative missing from this sentence, John. Fix it please. “As a society we need to focus on surviving everyday things we can prevent than worrying about things we can’t.”